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Credibility (international relations)

In international relations, credibility is the perceived likelihood that a leader or a state follows through on threats and promises that have been made.[1] Credibility is a key component of coercion (i.e. compellence and deterrence), as well as the functioning of military alliances.[2] Credibility is related to concepts such as reputation (how past behavior shapes perceptions of an actor's tendencies)[3][4] and resolve (the willingness to stand firm while incurring costs).[5][6] Reputation for resolve may be a key component of credibility, but credibility is also highly context-dependent.[7]

Credibility may be determined through assessments of power,[8] past reputation,[9][10] current interests,[8] and signaling.[11] Situational and dispositional factors may affect perceptions of credibility.[3][5] Misperception and miscommunication can lead to erroneous assessments of credibility.[12] Assessments of reputation may be linked to specific leaders,[13][14] as well as states.

  1. ^ Jervis, Robert; Yarhi-Milo, Keren; Casler, Don (2021). "Redefining the Debate Over Reputation and Credibility in International Security: Promises and Limits of New Scholarship". World Politics. 73 (1): 167–203. doi:10.1017/S0043887120000246. ISSN 0043-8871. S2CID 230529327.
  2. ^ Yarhi-Milo, Keren (2024-06-18). "The Credibility Trap". Foreign Affairs. Vol. 103, no. 4. ISSN 0015-7120.
  3. ^ a b Mercer, Jonathan (2010). Reputation and International Politics. Cornell University Press. ISBN 978-0-8014-7489-7.
  4. ^ Crescenzi, Mark J. C. (2018). Of Friends and Foes: Reputation and Learning in International Politics. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-060952-8.
  5. ^ a b Kertzer, Joshua (2016). Resolve in International Politics. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-1-4008-8364-6.
  6. ^ McManus, Roseanne W. (2017). Statements of Resolve: Achieving Coercive Credibility in International Conflict. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-17034-6.
  7. ^ Kertzer, Joshua D. (2021-09-02). "American Credibility After Afghanistan". Foreign Affairs. ISSN 0015-7120. Retrieved 2021-09-02.
  8. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :6 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  9. ^ Weisiger, Alex; Yarhi-Milo, Keren (2015). "Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics". International Organization. 69 (2): 473–495. doi:10.1017/S0020818314000393. ISSN 0020-8183. JSTOR 24758122. S2CID 145699686.
  10. ^ Reiter, Dan (1996). Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and World Wars. Cornell University Press. ISBN 978-0-8014-3188-3.
  11. ^ Fearon, James D. (1997). "Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 41 (1): 68–90. doi:10.1177/0022002797041001004. ISSN 0022-0027. S2CID 42473249.
  12. ^ Jervis, Robert (2017). Perception and Misperception in International Politics (new ed.). Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-1-4008-8511-4.
  13. ^ Renshon, Jonathan; Dafoe, Allan; Huth, Paul (2018). "Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics". American Journal of Political Science. 62 (2): 325–339. doi:10.1111/ajps.12335. ISSN 1540-5907. S2CID 158373803.
  14. ^ Lupton, Danielle L. (2020). Reputation for Resolve: How Leaders Signal Determination in International Politics. Cornell University Press. ISBN 978-1-5017-4773-1.

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