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FiveThirtyEight

For other uses, see 538 (disambiguation).

FiveThirtyEight
Type of businessSubsidiary
Type of site
Political analysis and blog
Available inEnglish
DissolvedMarch 5, 2025 (2025-03-05)
OwnerABC News
Created byNate Silver
URLArchive of site
CommercialYes
RegistrationNo
LaunchedMarch 7, 2008 (2008-03-07)[1]
Current statusOffline

FiveThirtyEight, also rendered as 538, was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.[2]

The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN.com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014.[3] Afterwards, the FiveThirtyEight blog covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. In 2018, operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company).

During the presidential primaries and general election of 2008 the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data".[4][5] Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll".[6] Since the 2008 election, the site published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the Senate; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reform, global warming legislation and LGBT rights; elections around the world; marijuana legalization; and numerous other topics. The site (as well as its founder) was best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

FiveThirtyEight won numerous awards, including Bloggie Awards for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics in 2009 as well as Webbies for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, FiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the Global Editors Network.

Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin.[7][8][9] The site's new owner, Disney, hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model.[7][8] On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, with web traffic becoming redirected to ABC News pages, and its logo was replaced, with the name 538 used instead of FiveThirtyEight.[2] On March 5, 2025, 538 was shut down by ABC News and its staff were laid off.[10]

  1. ^ "FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools". WHOIS. Archived from the original on September 24, 2017. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
  2. ^ a b "Welcome to the new 538 website". ABC News. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on September 18, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  3. ^ "Nate Silver joins ESPN in multifaceted role". ESPN.com. July 22, 2013. Archived from the original on July 25, 2013.
  4. ^ Romano, Andrew (June 16, 2008). "Where We Were on June 16, 2004--and What It Means for Nov. 4, 2008". Stumper. Newsweek. Archived from the original on June 17, 2008. Retrieved June 19, 2008.
  5. ^ Andrew Romano (June 16, 2008). "Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw". Newsweek. Archived June 19, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ "FAQ and Statement of Methodology". FiveThirtyEight. June 9, 2008. Archived from the original on May 19, 2011. Retrieved June 19, 2008.
  7. ^ a b Stieb, Matt (May 19, 2023). "A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight". New York Magazine. Archived from the original on June 2, 2023. Retrieved July 9, 2024.
  8. ^ a b Weprin, Alex (May 19, 2023). "With Nate Silver Exiting, ABC News Finds Its Next Data Guru in G. Elliott Morris". The Hollywood Reporter. Archived from the original on July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 9, 2024.
  9. ^ Fortinsky, Sarah (July 2, 2024). "Nate Silver expects 'further decline ahead' in Biden polls after debate". The Hill. Archived from the original on July 8, 2024. Retrieved July 9, 2024.
  10. ^ Dunbar, Marina (March 5, 2025). "Political poll news site 538 to close amid larger shuttering across ABC and Disney". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 8, 2025.


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