Likelihood ratios in diagnostic testing

In evidence-based medicine, likelihood ratios are used for assessing the value of performing a diagnostic test. They combine sensitivity and specificity into a single metric that indicates how much a test result shifts the probability that a condition (such as a disease) is present. The first description of the use of likelihood ratios for decision rules was made at a symposium on information theory in 1954.[1] In medicine, likelihood ratios were introduced between 1975 and 1980.[2][3][4]. There is a multiclass version of these likelihood ratios[5].

  1. ^ Swets JA. (1973). "The relative operating characteristic in Psychology". Science. 182 (14116): 990–1000. Bibcode:1973Sci...182..990S. doi:10.1126/science.182.4116.990. PMID 17833780.
  2. ^ Pauker SG, Kassirer JP (1975). "Therapeutic Decision Making: A Cost-Benefit Analysis". NEJM. 293 (5): 229–34. doi:10.1056/NEJM197507312930505. PMID 1143303.
  3. ^ Thornbury JR, Fryback DG, Edwards W (1975). "Likelihood ratios as a measure of the diagnostic usefulness of excretory urogram information". Radiology. 114 (3): 561–5. doi:10.1148/114.3.561. PMID 1118556.
  4. ^ van der Helm HJ, Hische EA (1979). "Application of Bayes's theorem to results of quantitative clinical chemical determinations". Clin Chem. 25 (6): 985–8. doi:10.1093/clinchem/25.6.985. PMID 445835.
  5. ^ Foulle, Sebastien (June 2025). "Mathematical Characterization of Better-than-Random Multiclass Models". TMLR.

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