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Nuclear weapons and Israel

State of Israel
Location of State of Israel
Nuclear program start dateUnknown (estimated 1948 or 1949)[1][2][3]
First nuclear weapon testUnknown (reported partner in early French testing 1960,[1] reported local Israeli underground test 1963,[1] reported Israeli test in Vela incident 1979)[a]
Current stockpileUnknown (estimated 90–400 warheads)[b][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]
Maximum missile rangeUnknown (estimated up to 11,500 km)[c]
NPT partyNo
Nuclear weapons
Photograph of a mock-up of the Little Boy nuclear weapon dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in August 1945.
Background
Nuclear-armed states
NPT recognized
United States
Russia
United Kingdom
France
China
Others
India
Israel (undeclared)
Pakistan
North Korea
Former
South Africa
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. Estimates of Israel's stockpile range from 90 to 400 nuclear warheads,[2][5][6][7][8][9][19] and the country is believed to possess a nuclear triad of delivery options: by F-15 and F-16 fighters, by Dolphin-class submarine-launched cruise missiles, and by the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental range ballistic missiles.[20][21] Its first deliverable nuclear weapon is thought to have been completed in late 1966 or early 1967, which, if true, would make it the sixth country in the world to have developed them.[2][22][23]

Israel maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity, neither officially denying nor admitting to having nuclear weapons, instead repeating over the years that "Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East".[24][25][26] However, in November 2023, amid the Gaza war, the junior Heritage Minister Amihai Eliyahu publicly considered dropping a nuclear bomb over Gaza, which some took to be a tacit admission that Israel possesses such a capability; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reprimanded and suspended Eliyahu in response.[27][28]

Israel has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), despite international pressure to do so.[29] It argues that nuclear controls cannot be implemented in isolation of other security issues and that only following the establishment of peaceful relations of all countries in the region could controls be introduced via negotiation of "a mutually and effectively verifiable regime that [would] establish the Middle East as a zone free of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons".[30] Additionally, comments by then prime minister Yair Lapid in 2022 referring to the ability of "other capabilities" to "keep us alive as long as we and our children are here" has been interpreted as a reference to the need to retain nuclear weapons.[31]

Additionally, Israel developed the Begin Doctrine of counter-proliferation and preventive strikes, which seeks to prevent other regional actors from acquiring their own nuclear weapons. The Israeli Air Force conducted Operation Opera and Operation Orchard, which destroyed the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors in 1981 and 2007, respectively. The Stuxnet malware that severely damaged Iranian nuclear facilities in 2010 is thought to have been developed jointly by the United States and Israel. As of 2019, Israel remained the only country in the Middle East believed to possess nuclear weapons.[23] The Samson Option refers to Israel's ability to use nuclear weapons against attackers as a deterrence strategy in the face of existential military threats to the nation.[32][33]

Israel began to investigate nuclear-related science soon after it declared independence in 1948, and, with French cooperation, secretly began building the Negev Nuclear Research Center,[d] a facility near Dimona housing a nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant in the late 1950s. The first extensive details of the weapons program came on October 5, 1986, with media coverage of revelations from Mordechai Vanunu, a technician formerly employed at the center. Vanunu was soon kidnapped by Mossad and brought back to Israel, where he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage.[34][35]

  1. ^ a b c Farr 1999.
  2. ^ a b c "Israel's Nuclear Weapon Capability: An Overview". Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. August 1996. Archived from the original on April 29, 2015. Retrieved May 3, 2015.
  3. ^ "WRMEA – Mohammed Omer Wins Norwegian PEN Prize". Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.
  4. ^ David Albright (July 1994). "South Africa and the Affordable Bomb – The flash in the Atlantic". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 50 (4): 42.
  5. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference HK was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference israelhayom.com was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ a b Revesz, Rachael (September 16, 2016). "Colin Powell leaked emails: Israel has '200 nukes all pointed at Iran', former US secretary of state says". The Independent. Retrieved May 10, 2018.
  8. ^ a b Brower 1997.
  9. ^ a b "Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance". Arms Control Association. Retrieved September 24, 2017.
  10. ^ Cohen 1998, p. 349.
  11. ^ ElBaradei, Mohamed (July 27, 2004). "Transcript of the Director General's Interview with Al-Ahram News". International Atomic Energy Agency. Retrieved June 3, 2007.
  12. ^ My Promised Land, by Ari Shavit, (London 2014), page 188
  13. ^ John Pike. "Nuclear Weapons". globalsecurity.org.
  14. ^ "Nuclear Weapons". fas.org.
  15. ^ "Status of World Nuclear Forces – Federation Of American Scientists". Fas.org.
  16. ^ Andrew Feickert (March 5, 2004). "Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries" (PDF). Congressional Research Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 28, 2014.
  17. ^ "Jericho 3". Missile Threat. March 26, 2012. Archived from the original on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2012.
  18. ^ "Israel Tests Enhanced Ballistic Missile". Retrieved February 6, 2015.
  19. ^ "Status of World Nuclear Forces – Federation Of American Scientists". Fas.org.
  20. ^ "Jericho 3". missilethreat.csis.org. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved August 15, 2017.
  21. ^ "Nuclear weapons – Israel". Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved July 1, 2007.
  22. ^ Nuclear Proliferation International History Project. "Israel's Quest for Yellowcake: The Secret Argentina-Israel Connection, 1963–1966". Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
  23. ^ a b "Nuclear Overview". Israel. NTI. Archived from the original on January 2, 2009. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  24. ^ Bronner, Ethan (October 13, 2010). "Vague, Opaque and Ambiguous — Israel's Hush-Hush Nuclear Policy". The New York Times. Retrieved March 6, 2012.
  25. ^ Korb, Lawrence (November 1, 1998). "The Quiet Bomb". The New York Times. Retrieved March 6, 2012.
  26. ^ "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968" (historical documents). Office of the Historian. XX, Arab-Israeli Dispute, 1967–68. Department of State. December 12, 1968. Document 349. Retrieved July 3, 2012.
  27. ^ Williams, Dan (November 5, 2023). "Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister over Gaza nuclear comment". Reuters. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  28. ^ Lederer, Edith M. (November 14, 2023). "China, Iran, Arab nations condemn Israeli minister's statement about dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza". AP News. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  29. ^ Lazaroff, Rovah (October 30, 2022). "Israel must get rid of its nuclear weapons, UNGA majority decides". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  30. ^ "Application of IAEA Safeguards in the Middle East" (PDF). International Atomic Energy Agency. September 10, 2004. GOV/2004/61/Add.1-GC(48)/18/Add.1.
  31. ^ Williams, Dan (August 2, 2022). "Israel signals no change on nuclear policy as U.S. reaffirms anti-proliferation drive". Reuters. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  32. ^ Cite error: The named reference doctrine was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  33. ^ Cite error: The named reference :1 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  34. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sunday-times-20040421 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  35. ^ "Vanunu: Israel's nuclear telltale". BBC News. April 20, 2004. Retrieved October 17, 2012. [Vanunu blew] the whistle on Israel's secret nuclear activities....It was a decision that led him first to London and the Sunday Times - then to Rome and kidnapping by Israeli intelligence service Mossad - then back to Israel and a long jail sentence.


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