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COVID-19 is predicted to become an endemic disease by many experts. The observed behavior of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be eradicated;^[1] thus, a future transition to an endemic phase appears probable. In an endemic phase, people would continue to become infected and ill, but in relatively stable numbers.^[1] Such a transition may take years or decades.^[2] Precisely what would constitute an endemic phase is contested.^[3]

COVID-19 endemicity is distinct from the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern, which was ended by the World Health Organization on May 5, 2023.^[4] Endemic is a frequently misunderstood and misused word outside the realm of epidemiology. Endemic does not mean mild, or that COVID-19 must become a less hazardous disease. Some politicians and commentators have conflated what they termed endemic COVID-19 with the lifting of public health restrictions or a comforting return to pre-pandemic normality.

The severity of endemic disease would be dependent on various factors, including the evolution of the virus, population immunity, and vaccine development and rollout.^[2]^[5]^[6]

^ ^a ^b Antia R, Halloran ME (October 2021). "Transition to endemicity: Understanding COVID-19". Immunity (Review). 54 (10): 2172–2176. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2021.09.019. PMC 8461290. PMID 34626549.
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^ "WHO downgrades COVID-19 pandemic, says it's no longer a global emergency". CBC. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
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