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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 32.2%[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.[3]
The election was the first held after voters in 2020 approved Alaska Measure 2, which replaced traditional plurality voting with instant-runoff voting (IRV). Under the new system, the winners of a blanket top-four primary advanced to an instant-runoff election. However, only three candidates competed in the instant runoff election, as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola after finishing third in the primary. The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted, and Peltola was declared the winner that day.[4][5][6] The blanket primary's turnout of 32.2% was higher than in the last three primary elections.[7]
The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset because Alaska voters have long favored Republicans. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich won a US Senate seat in 2008.[8] Peltola was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13.[9]
The results of the new voting system were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a lobbyist group in favor of instant runoff voting, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[7] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing more moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]
Some social choice and election scientists criticized the election, saying it had several perceived flaws.[11][12] Of primary concern was the failure to elect the Condercet winner, the candidate who beats all other candidates in head-to-head matchups. More voters ranked Begich above Peltola and Palin individually, but Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking Begich out in the first round.[13] Begich's elimination was touted as an example of center squeeze, a scenario in which the candidate closest to the center of public opinion is eliminated due to failing to receive enough first choice votes.[14][15][16] Had Palin not run at all−all else being equal−Begich would have defeated Peltola by a margin exceeding 8000 votes. The election was also said to be notable as a negative vote weight event, where inceasing support for a candidate causes them to lose. Had fewer Palin-then-Begich supporters voted, Palin would have lost in the first round, enabling to win in the second.[12][17]
Elections scientists were careful to note that such flaws likely would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well. In the previous system, winners of each party primary run against each other in the general election. Several suggested alternative systems that could replace either of these systems.[11]
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Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
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