2024 United States presidential election in Texas

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.^[1]

As the second most populous state, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades.^[2]^[3]

However, Texas is considered by some to be potentially competitive, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue. However, in the 2020 elections, predominately-Latino South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.^[4]^[5] Thus, Texas remains favored to stay in the GOP column in 2024.^[6]

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ Barabak, Mark Z. (December 7, 2023). "Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?". Los Angeles Times.
^ Herrera, Jack (December 4, 2023). "Why do California, Texas differ so much? Religion, priorities of white minority play huge roles, poll shows". Los Angeles Times.
^ "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.
^ "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] Barabak, Mark Z. (December 7, 2023). "Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?". Los Angeles Times.

[3] Herrera, Jack (December 4, 2023). "Why do California, Texas differ so much? Religion, priorities of white minority play huge roles, poll shows". Los Angeles Times.

[4] "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.

[5] "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.

[6] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.

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