Birthday effect

The birthday effect (sometimes called the birthday blues, especially when referring specifically to suicide) is a statistical phenomenon where an individual's likelihood of death appears to increase on or close to their birthday. The birthday effect has been seen in studies of general populations in England and Wales,^[1] Switzerland,^[2]^[3] Ukraine,^[4] and the United States,^[5]^[6] as well as in smaller populations such as Major League Baseball players.^[7] Studies do not consistently show this effect; some studies find that men's and women's mortality rates diverge in the run-up to the birthday,^[5] while others find no significant gender effect.^[8]^[9] Suggested mechanisms for the effect include alcohol consumption, psychological stress relating to the birthday, increased suicide risk, terminally ill patients attempting to hold on until their birthday, an increased mortality salience, or a physiological cycle that causes the body to weaken annually. It has also been suggested that it may be a statistical artifact, perhaps as a result of anomalies in reporting, but the birthday effect has also been seen in studies that control for known reporting anomalies.^[5]^[7]

^ Anderson, M (1975). "Relationship between month of birth and month of death in the elderly". British Journal of Preventive & Social Medicine. 29 (3): 151–156. doi:10.1136/jech.29.3.151. PMC 478908. PMID 1191883.
^ Bovet, J; Spagnoli, J; Sudan, C (1997). "[Mortality and birthdays]". Sozial- und Präventivmedizin (in French). 42 (3): 151–161. doi:10.1007/bf01300566. PMID 9334087. S2CID 45657303.
^ Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; et al. (2012). "Death has a preference for birthdays – an analysis of death time series". Annals of Epidemiology. 22 (8): 603–606. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.04.016. PMID 22658822.
^ Vaiserman, Alexander; Grigoryev, Pavel; Belaya, Irina; Voitenko, Vladimir (2003). "Variation of mortality rate during the individual annual cycle". Biogerontology. 4 (4): 221–225. doi:10.1023/A:1025168932058. PMID 14501186. S2CID 22678145.
^ ^a ^b ^c Phillips, David; Van Voorhees, Camilla; Ruth, Todd (1992). "The Birthday: Lifeline or Deadline?". Psychosomatic Medicine. 54 (5): 532–542. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.103.5726. doi:10.1097/00006842-199209000-00001. PMID 1438656. S2CID 12190316.
^ Peña, Pablo (2015). "A not so happy day after all: Excess death rates on birthdays in the U.S". Social Science & Medicine. 126: 59–66. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.12.014. PMID 25528555.
^ ^a ^b Abel, Ernest; Kruger, Michael (2009). "Mortality Salience of Birthdays on Day of Death in the Major Leagues". Death Studies. 33 (2): 175–184. doi:10.1080/07481180802138936. PMID 19143110. S2CID 8439436.
^ Doblhammer, Gabrielle (1999). "Longevity and month of birth: Evidence from Austria and Denmark". Demographic Research. 1 (3): &#91, 22&#93, p. doi:10.4054/DemRes.1999.1.3. PMID 12178151.
^ Medenwald, Daniel; Kuss, Oliver (2014). "Deaths and major biographical events: a study of all cancer deaths in Germany from 1995 to 2009". BMJ Open. 4 (4): e004423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004423. PMC 3987729. PMID 24694623.

[E&W-1] Anderson, M (1975). "Relationship between month of birth and month of death in the elderly". British Journal of Preventive & Social Medicine. 29 (3): 151–156. doi:10.1136/jech.29.3.151. PMC 478908. PMID 1191883.

[Swiss1992-2] Bovet, J; Spagnoli, J; Sudan, C (1997). "[Mortality and birthdays]". Sozial- und Präventivmedizin (in French). 42 (3): 151–161. doi:10.1007/bf01300566. PMID 9334087. S2CID 45657303.

[Swiss2008-3] Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; et al. (2012). "Death has a preference for birthdays – an analysis of death time series". Annals of Epidemiology. 22 (8): 603–606. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.04.016. PMID 22658822.

[Ukraine-4] Vaiserman, Alexander; Grigoryev, Pavel; Belaya, Irina; Voitenko, Vladimir (2003). "Variation of mortality rate during the individual annual cycle". Biogerontology. 4 (4): 221–225. doi:10.1023/A:1025168932058. PMID 14501186. S2CID 22678145.

[California-5] Phillips, David; Van Voorhees, Camilla; Ruth, Todd (1992). "The Birthday: Lifeline or Deadline?". Psychosomatic Medicine. 54 (5): 532–542. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.103.5726. doi:10.1097/00006842-199209000-00001. PMID 1438656. S2CID 12190316.

[USA-6] Peña, Pablo (2015). "A not so happy day after all: Excess death rates on birthdays in the U.S". Social Science & Medicine. 126: 59–66. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.12.014. PMID 25528555.

[MLB-7] Abel, Ernest; Kruger, Michael (2009). "Mortality Salience of Birthdays on Day of Death in the Major Leagues". Death Studies. 33 (2): 175–184. doi:10.1080/07481180802138936. PMID 19143110. S2CID 8439436.

[Austria-8] Doblhammer, Gabrielle (1999). "Longevity and month of birth: Evidence from Austria and Denmark". Demographic Research. 1 (3): &#91, 22&#93, p. doi:10.4054/DemRes.1999.1.3. PMID 12178151.

[Germany-9] Medenwald, Daniel; Kuss, Oliver (2014). "Deaths and major biographical events: a study of all cancer deaths in Germany from 1995 to 2009". BMJ Open. 4 (4): e004423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004423. PMC 3987729. PMID 24694623.

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