Chinese Century

The Chinese Century (simplified Chinese: 中国世纪; traditional Chinese: 中國世紀; pinyin: Zhōngguó shìjì) is a neologism suggesting that the 21st century may be geoeconomically or geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China,^[1] similar to how the "American Century" refers to the 20th century and the "British Centuries" to the 18th and 19th, ^[2] same in the 17-18th centuries dominated by France and the 15-16th centuries dominated by Spain.^[3][4] The phrase is used particularly in association with the prediction that the economy of China may overtake the economy of the United States to be the largest in the world.^[5] A similar term is China's rise or rise of China (simplified Chinese: 中国崛起; traditional Chinese: 中國崛起; pinyin: Zhōngguó juéqǐ).^[6][7]

China created the Belt and Road Initiative, which according to analysts has been a geostrategic effort to take a larger role in global affairs and challenges American postwar hegemony.^[8][9][10] It has also been argued that China co-founded the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in development finance.^[11][12] In 2015, China launched the Made in China 2025 strategic plan to further develop its manufacturing sector. There have been debates on the effectiveness and practicality of these programs in promoting China's global status.

China's emergence as a global economic power is tied to its large working population.^[13] However, the population in China is aging faster than almost any other country in history.^[13][14] Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth, create challenging social problems, and limit China's capabilities to act as a new global hegemon.^{[13][15][16][17]} China's primarily debt-driven economic growth also creates concerns for substantial credit default risks and a potential financial crisis.

According to The Economist, on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis, the Chinese economy became the world's largest in 2013.^[18] On a foreign exchange rate basis, some estimates in 2020 and early 2021 said that China could overtake the U.S. in 2028,^[19] or 2026 if the Chinese currency further strengthened.^[20] As of July 2021, Bloomberg L.P. analysts estimated that China may either overtake the U.S. to become the world's biggest economy in the 2030s or never be able to reach such a goal.^[21] Some scholars believe that China's rise has peaked and that an impending stagnation or decline may follow.^[22][23][24]