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Civilian casualty ratio

In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular belligerent, casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from famine and epidemics are included.

Global estimates of the civilian casualty ratio vary. In 1999, the International Committee of the Red Cross estimated that between 30 and 65% of conflict casualties were civilians,[1] while the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) indicated, in 2002, that 30–60% of fatalities from conflicts were civilians.[2] In 2017, the UCDP indicated that, for urban warfare, civilians constituted 49–66% of all known fatalities. William Eckhardt found that, when averaged across a century, the civilian casualty ratio remained at about 50% for each of the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries.[3] It is frequently claimed that 90% of casualties are civilians, but research has shown that to be a myth.[2][4][1]

In World War II at civilians constituted 60–67% of casualties,[5] but some sources give a higher estimate. In the Vietnam War, the civilian ratio is estimated at 46[6]–67%.[7] Two studies found civilian ratio was 40% in the Bosnian war.[4] During the Second Intifada, civilians constituted ~70% of Israelis killed by Palestinians and ~60% of Palestinians killed by Israelis.[8] Civilians constituted ~75% and ~65% of all Palestinians killed in the 2008 war and 2014 war, respectively. In the 2023–2025 war, civilians have constituted 68% of those killed by Hamas attacks,[9] and ~80% of those killed by the Israeli invasion.[10][11][12]

  1. ^ a b Greenhill, Kelly M. (2011-01-15), Andreas, Peter; Greenhill, Kelly M. (eds.), "6. Counting the Cost: the politics of numbers in armed conflict", Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politics of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict, Cornell University Press, pp. 129–132, doi:10.7591/9780801458309-008, ISBN 978-0-8014-5830-9, retrieved 2024-12-30
  2. ^ a b Human Security Report 2005, page 75
  3. ^ Eckhardt, W. "Civilian deaths in wartime." Security Dialogue 20(1): 89-98. Also at [1]
  4. ^ a b Adam Roberts, "Lives and Statistics: Are 90% of War Victims Civilians?", Survival, London, vol. 52, no. 3, June–July 2010, pp. 115–35. Print edition ISSN 0039-6338. Online ISSN 1468-2699.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference sadowski_p134 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Cite error: The named reference Khorram-Manesh-Burkle-Goniewicz-Robinson-2021 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference shenon was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ "Israeli-Palestinian Fatalities Since 2000 - Key Trends". United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 2007-08-31. Archived from the original on 2021-08-01. Retrieved 2023-10-19.
  9. ^ "Israel social security data reveals true picture of Oct 7 deaths". France 24. 15 December 2023.
  10. ^ Cockerill, Matthew Ghobrial (2024-10-28). "Civilian casualties in Gaza: Israel's claims don't add up". AOAV. Retrieved 2024-10-30.
  11. ^ Ayoub, H. H., Chemaitelly, H., & Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2024). Comparative analysis and evolution of civilian versus combatant mortality ratios in Israel-Gaza conflicts, 2008-2023. Frontiers in public health, 12, 1359189. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1359189
  12. ^ Cite error: The named reference AOAV20240802 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

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