Endemic COVID-19

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COVID-19 has been predicted to become an endemic disease by many experts. The observed behavior of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be eradicated;^[1] thus, transition to an endemic phase appears probable. In an endemic phase, people continue to become infected and ill, but in relatively stable numbers.^[1] Such a transition may take years or decades.^[2] Precisely what would constitute an endemic phase is contested.^[3]

Endemic is a frequently misunderstood and misused word outside the realm of epidemiology. Endemic does not mean mild, or that COVID-19 must become a less hazardous disease. The severity of endemic disease would be dependent on various factors, including the evolution of the virus, population immunity, and vaccine development and rollout.^[2][4][5]

COVID-19 endemicity is distinct from the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern, which was ended by the World Health Organization on 5 May 2023.^[6] Some politicians and commentators have conflated what they termed endemic COVID-19 with the lifting of public health restrictions or a comforting return to pre-pandemic normality.

As of 2024, experts were in disagreement as to whether COVID-19 had yet become endemic.^[7][8][9] The transition point of a pandemic into an endemic state is not well-defined, and whether this has occurred differs according to the definitions used.^[10]