Evolutionary invasion analysis

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Evolutionary invasion analysis, also known as adaptive dynamics, is a set of mathematical modeling techniques that use differential equations to study the long-term evolution of traits in asexually and sexually reproducing populations. It rests on the following three assumptions about mutation and population dynamics:^[1]

1. Mutations are infrequent. The population can be assumed to be at equilibrium when a new mutant arises.
2. The number of individuals with the mutant trait is initially negligible in the large, established resident population.
3. Mutant phenotypes are only slightly different from the resident phenotype.

Evolutionary invasion analysis makes it possible to identify conditions on model parameters for which the mutant population dies out, replaces the resident population, and/or coexists with the resident population. Long-term coexistence of the two phenotypes is known as evolutionary branching. When branching occurs, the mutant establishes itself as a second resident in the environment.

Central to evolutionary invasion analysis is the mutant's invasion fitness. This is a mathematical expression for the long-term exponential growth rate of the mutant subpopulation when it is introduced into the resident population in small numbers. If the invasion fitness is positive (in continuous time), the mutant population can grow in the environment set by the resident phenotype. If the invasion fitness is negative, the mutant population swiftly goes extinct.^[1]