Family of probability distributions often used to model tails or extreme values
This article is about a particular family of continuous distributions referred to as the generalized Pareto distribution. For the hierarchy of generalized Pareto distributions, see
Pareto distribution .
Generalized Pareto distribution
Probability density function
GPD distribution functions for
μ
=
0
{\displaystyle \mu =0}
and different values of
σ
{\displaystyle \sigma }
and
ξ
{\displaystyle \xi }
Cumulative distribution function
Parameters
μ
∈
(
−
∞
,
∞
)
{\displaystyle \mu \in (-\infty ,\infty )\,}
location (real )
σ
∈
(
0
,
∞
)
{\displaystyle \sigma \in (0,\infty )\,}
scale (real)
ξ
∈
(
−
∞
,
∞
)
{\displaystyle \xi \in (-\infty ,\infty )\,}
shape (real) Support
x
⩾
μ
(
ξ
⩾
0
)
{\displaystyle x\geqslant \mu \,\;(\xi \geqslant 0)}
μ
⩽
x
⩽
μ
−
σ
/
ξ
(
ξ
<
0
)
{\displaystyle \mu \leqslant x\leqslant \mu -\sigma /\xi \,\;(\xi <0)}
PDF
1
σ
(
1
+
ξ
z
)
−
(
1
/
ξ
+
1
)
{\displaystyle {\frac {1}{\sigma }}(1+\xi z)^{-(1/\xi +1)}}
where
z
=
x
−
μ
σ
{\displaystyle z={\frac {x-\mu }{\sigma }}}
CDF
1
−
(
1
+
ξ
z
)
−
1
/
ξ
{\displaystyle 1-(1+\xi z)^{-1/\xi }\,}
Mean
μ
+
σ
1
−
ξ
(
ξ
<
1
)
{\displaystyle \mu +{\frac {\sigma }{1-\xi }}\,\;(\xi <1)}
Median
μ
+
σ
(
2
ξ
−
1
)
ξ
{\displaystyle \mu +{\frac {\sigma (2^{\xi }-1)}{\xi }}}
Mode
μ
{\displaystyle \mu }
Variance
σ
2
(
1
−
ξ
)
2
(
1
−
2
ξ
)
(
ξ
<
1
/
2
)
{\displaystyle {\frac {\sigma ^{2}}{(1-\xi )^{2}(1-2\xi )}}\,\;(\xi <1/2)}
Skewness
2
(
1
+
ξ
)
1
−
2
ξ
(
1
−
3
ξ
)
(
ξ
<
1
/
3
)
{\displaystyle {\frac {2(1+\xi ){\sqrt {1-2\xi }}}{(1-3\xi )}}\,\;(\xi <1/3)}
Excess kurtosis
3
(
1
−
2
ξ
)
(
2
ξ
2
+
ξ
+
3
)
(
1
−
3
ξ
)
(
1
−
4
ξ
)
−
3
(
ξ
<
1
/
4
)
{\displaystyle {\frac {3(1-2\xi )(2\xi ^{2}+\xi +3)}{(1-3\xi )(1-4\xi )}}-3\,\;(\xi <1/4)}
Entropy
log
(
σ
)
+
ξ
+
1
{\displaystyle \log(\sigma )+\xi +1}
MGF
e
θ
μ
∑
j
=
0
∞
[
(
θ
σ
)
j
∏
k
=
0
j
(
1
−
k
ξ
)
]
,
(
k
ξ
<
1
)
{\displaystyle e^{\theta \mu }\,\sum _{j=0}^{\infty }\left[{\frac {(\theta \sigma )^{j}}{\prod _{k=0}^{j}(1-k\xi )}}\right],\;(k\xi <1)}
CF
e
i
t
μ
∑
j
=
0
∞
[
(
i
t
σ
)
j
∏
k
=
0
j
(
1
−
k
ξ
)
]
,
(
k
ξ
<
1
)
{\displaystyle e^{it\mu }\,\sum _{j=0}^{\infty }\left[{\frac {(it\sigma )^{j}}{\prod _{k=0}^{j}(1-k\xi )}}\right],\;(k\xi <1)}
Method of moments
ξ
=
1
2
(
1
−
(
E
[
X
]
−
μ
)
2
V
[
X
]
)
{\displaystyle \xi ={\frac {1}{2}}\left(1-{\frac {(E[X]-\mu )^{2}}{V[X]}}\right)}
σ
=
(
E
[
X
]
−
μ
)
(
1
−
ξ
)
{\displaystyle \sigma =(E[X]-\mu )(1-\xi )}
Expected shortfall
{
μ
+
σ
[
(
1
−
p
)
−
ξ
1
−
ξ
+
(
1
−
p
)
−
ξ
−
1
ξ
]
,
ξ
≠
0
μ
+
σ
[
1
−
ln
(
1
−
p
)
]
,
ξ
=
0
{\displaystyle {\begin{cases}\mu +\sigma \left[{\frac {(1-p)^{-\xi }}{1-\xi }}+{\frac {(1-p)^{-\xi }-1}{\xi }}\right]&,\xi \neq 0\\\mu +\sigma [1-\ln(1-p)]&,\xi =0\end{cases}}}
[ 1]
In statistics , the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is a family of continuous probability distributions . It is often used to model the tails of another distribution. It is specified by three parameters: location
μ
{\displaystyle \mu }
, scale
σ
{\displaystyle \sigma }
, and shape
ξ
{\displaystyle \xi }
.[ 2] [ 3] Sometimes it is specified by only scale and shape[ 4] and sometimes only by its shape parameter. Some references give the shape parameter as
κ
=
−
ξ
{\displaystyle \kappa =-\xi \,}
.[ 5]
With shape
ξ
>
0
{\displaystyle \xi >0}
and location
μ
=
σ
/
ξ
{\displaystyle \mu =\sigma /\xi }
, the GPD is equivalent to the Pareto distribution with scale
x
m
=
σ
/
ξ
{\displaystyle x_{m}=\sigma /\xi }
and shape
α
=
1
/
ξ
{\displaystyle \alpha =1/\xi }
.
^ a b Norton, Matthew; Khokhlov, Valentyn; Uryasev, Stan (2019). "Calculating CVaR and bPOE for common probability distributions with application to portfolio optimization and density estimation" (PDF) . Annals of Operations Research . 299 (1– 2). Springer: 1281– 1315. arXiv :1811.11301 . doi :10.1007/s10479-019-03373-1 . S2CID 254231768 . Archived from the original (PDF) on 2023-03-31. Retrieved 2023-02-27 .
^ Coles, Stuart (2001-12-12). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values . Springer. p. 75. ISBN 9781852334598 .
^ Dargahi-Noubary, G. R. (1989). "On tail estimation: An improved method". Mathematical Geology . 21 (8): 829– 842. Bibcode :1989MatGe..21..829D . doi :10.1007/BF00894450 . S2CID 122710961 .
^ Hosking, J. R. M.; Wallis, J. R. (1987). "Parameter and Quantile Estimation for the Generalized Pareto Distribution". Technometrics . 29 (3): 339– 349. doi :10.2307/1269343 . JSTOR 1269343 .
^ Davison, A. C. (1984-09-30). "Modelling Excesses over High Thresholds, with an Application" . In de Oliveira, J. Tiago (ed.). Statistical Extremes and Applications . Kluwer. p. 462. ISBN 9789027718044 .