Growth of photovoltaics

Between 1992 and 2023, the worldwide usage of photovoltaics (PV) increased exponentially. During this period, it evolved from a niche market of small-scale applications to a mainstream electricity source.^[3] From 2016-2022 it has seen an annual capacity and production growth rate of around 26%- doubling approximately every three years.

When solar PV systems were first recognized as a promising renewable energy technology, subsidy programs, such as feed-in tariffs, were implemented by a number of governments in order to provide economic incentives for investments. For several years, growth was mainly driven by Japan and pioneering European countries. As a consequence, cost of solar declined significantly due to experience curve effects like improvements in technology and economies of scale. Several national programs were instrumental in increasing PV deployment, such as the Energiewende in Germany, the Million Solar Roofs project in the United States, and China's 2011 five-year-plan for energy production.^[4] Since then, deployment of photovoltaics has gained momentum on a worldwide scale, increasingly competing with conventional energy sources. In the early 21st century a market for utility-scale plants emerged to complement rooftop and other distributed applications.^[5] By 2015, some 30 countries had reached grid parity.^[6]: 9

Since the 1950s, when the first solar cells were commercially manufactured, there has been a succession of countries leading the world as the largest producer of electricity from solar photovoltaics. First it was the United States, then Japan,^[7] followed by Germany, and currently China.

By the end of 2022, the global cumulative installed PV capacity reached about 1,185 gigawatts (GW), supplying over 6% of global electricity demand,^[8] up from about 3% in 2019.^[9] In 2022, solar PV contributed over 10% of the annual domestic consumption of electricity in nine countries, with Spain, Greece and Chile over 17%.^[8]

Official agencies publish predictions of solar growth, often underestimating it.^[10] The International Energy Agency (IEA) have consistently increased their estimates for decades, while still falling far short of projecting actual deployment in every forecast.^[11][12] Bloomberg NEF projects an additional 600 GW coming online by 2030 in the United States.^[13] By 2050, the IEA foresees solar PV to reach 4.7 terawatts (4,674 GW) in its high-renewable scenario, of which more than half will be deployed in China and India, making solar power the world's largest source of electricity.^[14][15]