Opinion polling for the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such an amendment as part of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.^[1] The number of these polls conducted grew substantially following Labor's victory in the 2022 federal election; the party had committed to holding the referendum required for this constitutional change in its first term of government.^[2]

At least ten firms polled Australians on the proposed amendment, greater than the number who have polled party support for any previous Australian election.^[2] Some firms were commissioned by media organisations, think tanks, advocacy groups or university foundations. Other firms self-initiated their polls for market research or strategic communications purposes.^[2] Considering methodologies, polls were almost exclusively conducted online, with only one firm using SMS. Pollsters differed on whether to give a forced-choice question, as is done in actual Australian referendums, or allow respondents to express indecision or lack of knowledge. Some pollsters also used Likert-style questions to allow respondents to express how strong their opinion is.^[2]

The Australian Constitution requires a proposed amendment to attain a double majority in the referendum – not only a majority of votes nationwide, but also a majority in at least four of the six states. Because of this requirement, the level of support in each state was of special interest.^[2] One way pollsters investigated state-level support was to break down results from national polls. However, these polls sometimes did not survey enough people from each state to give reliable results about state-level support, especially for smaller states like Tasmania and South Australia. Another way pollsters investigated was by specifically surveying people from a particular state.^[2]

Pollsters also often broke down their results by age, gender, and party affiliation. The last was of particular interest because bipartisan support is often considered necessary for an Australian referendum to pass, though it is not a formal requirement.^[2]

The extent of support for the Voice among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians was a key point of discussion. All publicly available polling indicated absolute majorities among this group favouring the Voice. Important caveats include the small sample size associated with certain polls, the length of time elapsed since the polls were conducted, and the lack of publicly available results and methodologies for certain polls.^[3]