Proposed Russian annexation of Transnistria

The government of Transnistria, a breakaway state internationally recognized as part of Moldova, has requested annexation by Russia numerous times. Transnistria is a territory that separated itself from Moldova due to fear of a possible unification of the latter with Romania. This sparked the Transnistria War, in which Russian-backed Transnistria managed to stay separate from Moldova. Despite this, today Transnistria is legally and internationally considered part of Moldova.

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, hopes in Transnistria that Russia would annex its territory as well grew. Transnistria has a substantial ethnic Russian population and the vast majority of its people speak Russian. The territory is financially supported by Russia, and Transnistrian education and laws are also interrelated with Russia. In 2006, a referendum in Transnistria was organized by the first President of Transnistria Igor Smirnov to vote for a possible reintegration into Moldova or independence and a future accession to the Russian Federation. The former proposal was rejected and the latter was approved, although the veracity of these results has been questioned. Still, posterior studies have proven the popularity of the idea on at least part of the population of Transnistria.

Due to all this, exactly on the same day that Russia annexed Crimea, the leader of the Transnistrian parliament Mikhail Burla sent a letter to Russia requesting the facilitation of a Russian annexation of Transnistria in the country's laws, which had a negative response from the international community. The topic was mentioned on numerous more occasions by different Transnistrian politicians such as the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Nina Shtanski, the former Transnistrian president Yevgeny Shevchuk (who issued an unsuccessful decree in 2016 to eventually make Transnistria join Russia) and the current one, Vadim Krasnoselsky. Some figures from Russia such as Zakhar Prilepin, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the For Truth party have responded positively to such a possibility.

Several analysts, however, believe that Russia will not try to annex Transnistria. Russia officially strives for the granting of a special status of Transnistria within Moldova, possibly to exert influence over the entire country. An annexation of Transnistria by Russia would be counterproductive to this goal, especially considering that it could accelerate an undesired unification between Moldova and Romania. Furthermore, Transnistria is far from Russia and landlocked, and creating a nationalist discourse among the Russian people to achieve annexation, as was done before with Crimea, could be more difficult.