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Rule of succession

This article is about the rule of succession in probability theory. For monarchical and presidential rules of succession, see Order of succession.
"Laplace–Bayes estimator" redirects here. For statistical estimators that maximize posterior expected utility or minimize posterior expected loss, see Bayes estimator.

In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the course of treating the sunrise problem.[1] The formula is still used, particularly to estimate underlying probabilities when there are few observations or events that have not been observed to occur at all in (finite) sample data.

  1. ^ Laplace, Pierre-Simon (1814). Essai philosophique sur les probabilités. Paris: Courcier.

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