Back مسارات اجتماعية واقتصادية مشتركة Arabic Scénáře socioekonomického vývoje Czech Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Danish Shared Socioeconomic Pathway German Trayectorias socioeconómicas compartidas Spanish Trajectoires socio-économiques partagées French Rarraba Hanyoyin Tattalin Arzikin Jama'a Hausa Ụzọ mmekọrịta akụ na ụba nkekọrịta IG 共享社會經濟路徑 Chinese

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Predicted atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) across the 21st century (projected by MAGICC7, a simple/reduced complexity climate model). Each data point represents an average of simulated values generated from five integrated assessment models.[1]

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021.[2] They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies.[3][4][5] The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments. These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other.[3] In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP (per capita).[6] The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways.[4][5][6]

The five scenarios are:

  • SSP1: Sustainability ("Taking the Green Road")
  • SSP2: "Middle of the Road"
  • SSP3: Regional Rivalry ("A Rocky Road")
  • SSP4: Inequality ("A Road Divided")
  • SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development ("Taking the Highway") [7]
  1. ^ Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., . . . Wang, R. H. J. (2020). The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(8), 3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020 Archived 2023-04-16 at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ "Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis" (PDF). ipcc.ch. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 August 2021. Retrieved 15 August 2021.
  3. ^ a b "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)" (PDF)..
  4. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  5. ^ a b Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker (2018). "Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C". Nature Climate Change. 8 (4): 325–332. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..325R. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3. hdl:1874/372779. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 56238230. Archived from the original on 2022-04-23. Retrieved 2022-04-23.
  6. ^ a b "SSP Database". tntcat.iiasa.ac.at. Archived from the original on 2020-04-25. Retrieved 2019-11-09.
  7. ^ Hausfather, Zeke (2018-04-19). "Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". Carbon Brief. Retrieved 2019-09-13.

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