Shy Tory factor

"Shy Tory factor" is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the "Tories") was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls.^[1] The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has allegedly affected the overall results, but has also been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States or the continued electoral victories of the People's Action Party in Singapore.^[1]^[2]^[3]

^ ^a ^b Mount, Harry (4 November 2004). "Republicans shyly make their presence felt". www.telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 3 November 2010.
^ "Singapore Elections: All Sunshine for the PAP?". 15 September 2015.
^ WEISS, MEREDITH L., et al. “The 2015 General Election and Singapore's Political Forecast: White Clouds, Blue Skies.” Asian Survey, vol. 56, no. 5, 2016, pp. 859–878. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26364391. Accessed 10 May 2021.

[mount-1] Mount, Harry (4 November 2004). "Republicans shyly make their presence felt". www.telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 3 November 2010.

[2] "Singapore Elections: All Sunshine for the PAP?". 15 September 2015.

[3] WEISS, MEREDITH L., et al. “The 2015 General Election and Singapore's Political Forecast: White Clouds, Blue Skies.” Asian Survey, vol. 56, no. 5, 2016, pp. 859–878. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26364391. Accessed 10 May 2021.

[1]

[2]

[3]