Total fertility rate

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The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.

As of 2023, the total fertility rate varied widely across the world, from 0.72 in South Korea to 6.73 in Niger.

Fertility tends to be inversely correlated with levels of economic development. Historically, developed countries have significantly lower fertility rates, generally correlated with greater wealth, education, urbanization, and other factors. Conversely, in least developed countries, fertility rates tend to be higher. Families desire children for their labor and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives, generally lower levels of female education, and lower rates of female employment. It does not significantly correlate with any particular religion.

As of 2020, the total fertility rate for the world is 2.3 and as of 2021 it is 2.23. The global TFR has declined rapidly since the 1960s, and some forecasters like Sanjeev Sanyal argue that the effective global fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate, estimated to be 2.3, in the 2020s. Projections of world human population indicate the transition from long-term growth to long-term decline during the period 2050–2070. The United Nations predicts that global fertility will continue to decline for the remainder of this century and reach a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100, and that world population will peak during the period 2084–2088.