On Friday, 14 September 2007, ORB International, an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.[1] At over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580), this estimate is the highest number published so far. From the poll margin of error of +/-2.5% ORB calculated a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths. The ORB estimate was performed by a random survey of 1,720 adults aged 18+, out of which 1,499 responded, in fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq, between August 12 and August 19, 2007.[2][3] In comparison, the 2006 Lancet survey suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths) through the end of June 2006. The Lancet authors calculated a range of 392,979 to 942,636 deaths.
On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken September 20 to 24, 2007. As a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.[4][5] As well as estimating the number of deaths the ORB poll also showed that despite the violence only 26% of Iraqis preferred life under Saddam Hussein's regime, while 49% said that they preferred life under the current political system.[6]
This ORB estimate has been criticised as exaggerated and ill-founded in peer reviewed literature.[7]
- ^ "More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered". September 2007. Opinion Research Business.
- ^ "Poll: Civilian Death Toll in Iraq May Top 1 Million" Archived 2014-05-31 at the Wayback Machine. By Tina Susman. 14 September 2007. Los Angeles Times.
- ^ "Greenspan Admits Iraq was About Oil, As Deaths Put at 1.2 Million". By Peter Beaumont and Joanna Walters. 16 September 2007. The Observer (UK).
- ^ Update on Iraqi Casualty Data Archived 2011-02-20 at the Wayback Machine by Opinion Research Business, January 2008. Info in PDF and DOC form is linked on the bottom of the page.
- ^ Revised casualty analysis. New analysis ‘confirms’ 1 million+ Iraq casualties Archived February 19, 2009, at the Wayback Machine. Jan. 28, 2008. Opinion Research Business. Word Viewer for .doc files.
- ^ "ORB - Opinion Business Research - Newsroom". Archived from the original on 2009-02-11. Retrieved 2015-09-26.
- ^ "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate" By Michael Spagat and Josh Dougherty
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