2021 Taliban offensive

2021 Taliban offensive
Part of the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021) and the Taliban insurgency
Date 1 May – 15 August 2021[8] (3 months and 2 weeks) Location Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Result Taliban victory Fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani flees from Afghanistan[9][10][11] Fall of Kabul to the Taliban[12] Most of the Afghan military surrendered[13][14] Taliban declares the restoration of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan[15][16] Start of the Republican insurgency in Afghanistan[17] End of the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021) Evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians and military personnel Resurgence of the Islamic State–Taliban conflict Territorial changes Taliban captures 232 districts and claims capturing an additional 94 districts, later controlling 305–399 districts[18][19] Taliban captures 33 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals[20][21]
Belligerents
Taliban Haqqani network[1][2]  al-Qaeda[3][4][5]	Afghanistan  United States[6][7]
Commanders and leaders
Hibatullah Akhundzada Mohammad Yaqoob Abdul Ghani Baradar Sirajuddin Haqqani[1] Anas Haqqani[22] Qari Fasihuddin[23] Abdul Qayyum Zakir[23] Abu Hamza Qudratullah[23] Salahuddin Ayubi[23] Ibrahim Sadar[23] Kari Shagasi †[24] Abdul Khaliq †[25] Mawlawi Mubarak †[26] Qari Khalid †[27] Qari Khalil †[28] Qari Jabar †[29] Mufti Ismael (WIA)[30]	Ashraf Ghani Amrullah Saleh Abdullah Abdullah Hamdullah Mohib[31][32] Bismillah Khan[33] Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal  Yasin Zia Ahmad Zia Saraj Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai[34] Hibatullah Alizai[34] Khyal Nabi Ahmadzai  Zabihullah Mohmand [35] Khir Mohammad Arefi [36] Abubaker Muradi [36] Ahmad Massoud[37] Abdul Rashid Dostum[38] Atta Muhammad Nur Ismail Khan [39] Joe Biden Mark Milley Kenneth McKenzie[40]
Units involved
Taliban forces Red Unit[41] Martyrdom Battalion[33] Badri 313 Battalion[42] Defected local militias[43][44] Defected Afghan soldiers[45][46][47] Al-Qaeda al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)[5][48] Jamaat Ansarullah[49]	Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) Afghan National Army Commandos Afghan National Police Afghan Air Force[50][51] Territorial Army[36] Pro-government militias[37][52][53] Public Uprising Forces[54] National Directorate of Security NDS Special Forces Units[55][56] Sangorian[57] CIA-backed Khost Protection Force (KPF)[58] United States Air Force[59] United States Navy USS Ronald Reagan[60]
Strength
Taliban: c. US estimate: 75,000[61] UN report: 55,000–85,000 fighters[62] 15,000 support facilitators and non-combatants[62] Other estimates: 85,000[63]–200,000[64][65]	ANSF: c. Official figure as per US and Afghan government: 300,000[66]–354,000[67][64][61](officially; including police officers,[68] and many ghost soldiers) Other estimates: 150,000–200,000 combat-oriented troops, including an unknown number of junior and ghost soldiers.[68]
Casualties and losses
Taliban Afghan government claim: 9,819 killed[69] 5,472 wounded[69] 54 captured[69] As per media reports: Heavy losses[70] Equipment: Multiple D-30 artillery pieces[71] Multiple tanks[71] Multiple MRAPs[71] Multiple Humvees[71]	Afghanistan Afghan official figure: Not disclosed[72][73] As per media reports: 1,537 killed[74] 972 wounded[74] 677 captured[74] 2,324+ deserted[75][76] 6,000 servicemen of KPF surrendered[58] Thousands of soldiers surrendered[56][77] Equipment: 4 Mil Mi-17 destroyed[78] 3 UH-60 Black Hawk destroyed[78][79] At least 1,980 trucks and Humvees captured by Taliban[78][80] At least 35 D-30 howitzers, 3 ZiS-3 and 23 mortars captured by Taliban[78][80] At least 104 military vehicles destroyed by Taliban[78][80] 12 T-54/T-62 tanks captured by Taliban[78][81] 51 armoured fighting vehicles captured by Taliban[78] 8 anti-aircraft guns captured by Taliban[78][81] 1 Mil Mi-24V captured by Taliban[82] 4 UH-60 Black Hawk captured by Taliban[78][83] 9 Mil Mi-17 captured by Taliban[78] 2 MD 530F captured by Taliban[78]
1,031 civilians killed[84][74] 2,043 civilians injured[84][74] 244,000 civilians displaced[85] 40,000 injured in total[86]

The 2021 Taliban offensive was a military offensive by the Taliban insurgent group and allied militants that led to the fall of the Kabul-based Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the end of the nearly 20-year War in Afghanistan that had begun following the United States invasion of the country. The Taliban victory had widespread domestic and international ramifications regarding human rights and proliferation of terrorism.^[87] The offensive included a continuation of the bottom-up succession of negotiated or paid surrenders to the Taliban from the village level upwards that started following the February 2020 US–Taliban deal.^[88][89]

The offensive began on 1 May 2021,^[90][91][18] coinciding with the withdrawal of the United States's 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, and those belonging to other international allies.^[92] Large numbers of armed civilians, including women, volunteered with the Afghan Army in defense,^[93][94][95] while some former warlords, notably Ismail Khan, were also recruited.^[96] Despite this, the Taliban managed to make significant territorial gains in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controlled from 73 to 223 in the first three months of the offensive.^[19] On 6 August, the Taliban launched an assault on the provincial capitals, with most of the towns surrendering without a fight,^[97] culminating with victories in weeks-long battles of major cities Herat, Kandahar and Lashkargah on 13 August.^[98] On 15 August, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country^[99] and the Taliban captured the Afghan capital Kabul with only sporadic resistance; thus, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell,^[100] resulting in the de facto takeover of the country and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.^{[101][102][103]} The speed of Taliban's takeover came as a surprise to many, including the governments of the United States and their allies,^{[104][105][106][107]} Russia^[108] and the Taliban themselves.^[91]

Factors prior to May 2021 included the Taliban's effective use of online social media,^[89] its strategic choice of attacking northern provinces,^[109][89] and the Taliban's freedom of movement on the main Afghan highways that resulted from the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) following the US-recommended strategy of sacrificing rural areas in favour of defending key urban centres.^[32][66][89] Factors in the ANSF loss to the Taliban included the February 2020 and April 2021 drops in US support, in which technical, proprietary software and logistics support, in particular aerial support, that the ANSF had been trained to depend on, were suddenly removed.^[110][111] Errors in US coalition training of the ANSF were seen as a factor,^[111] along with Afghan police extorting locals, military officers funding themselves by inventing ghost soldiers^[112] and the months of unpaid ANSF salaries that followed the April 2021 switch in ANSF salary management to Afghan military administration.^[113] Cronyism in ANSF military appointments and president Ashraf Ghani's inability to create an effective national consensus and convince local warlords were also seen as key processes of the ANSF's defeat.^{[110][61][111]} Afghans are also more loyal towards their traditional ethnic, tribal and even familial ties than they are to a central government in Kabul, which the provincial Taliban commanders exploited to negotiate surrender of many troops.^[114][115] In the long-term, the American invasion of Iraq and its shifting in focus to that region has also been cited as a reason for the Taliban's resurgence in the mid to late 2000s.^[116]