Modernization theory

Modernization theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic.^[1] The "classical" theories of modernization of the 1950s and 1960s, most influentially articulated by Seymour Lipset,^[1] drew on sociological analyses of Karl Marx, Emile Durkheim, Max Weber, and Talcott Parsons.^[2] Modernization theory was a dominant paradigm in the social sciences in the 1950s and 1960s, and saw a resurgence after 1991, when Francis Fukuyama wrote about the end of the Cold War as confirmation on modernization theory.^[3]

The theory is subject of much debate among scholars.^[1][4][5][6] Critics have highlighted cases where industrialization did not prompt stable democratization, such as Japan, Germany, and the Soviet Union, as well as cases of democratic backsliding in economically advanced parts of Latin America.^[4] Other critics argue the causal relationship is reverse (democracy is more likely to lead to economic modernization)^[7][1] or that economic modernization helps democracies survive but does not prompt democratization.^[8] Other scholars provide supporting evidence, showing that economic development significantly predicts democratization.^[9][10][4]