Futures studies

Moore's law is an example of futurology; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accurately extrapolating future trends.

Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.^[1]^[2]^[3] In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.^[4]

Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven than in natural science and social sciences like sociology and economics. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science, and it is sometimes described as pseudoscience;^[5]^[6] nevertheless, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002,^[7] developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017,^[8] and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course.^[9] In order to encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day.^[10]

^ James Joseph O'Toole (2017). "Futurology | social science". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ "Futurology | Definition of Futurology by Lexico". Lexico Dictionaries | English. Archived from the original on March 25, 2020. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
^ Voros, Joseph (2017-02-24). "The Futures Cone, use and history". The Voroscope. Retrieved 2020-07-13.
^ "Futurology". Wordnet Search 3.1. Princeton University. Retrieved 16 March 2013.
^ Futurology-Oxford Dictionary. 2008. Mainly a pseudo-science, given the complexities of social, political, economic, technological, and natural factors.
^ William, F. Williams (2013-12-02). Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience: From Alien Abductions to Zone Therapy. Routledge. pp. 122–123. ISBN 9781135955229. Many scientists reject the notion of futurology being a science, while others quibble at the use of the unscholarly word 'futurology'.
^ Hines, Andy (2004). "The History and Development of the Association of Professional Futurists". The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies.
^ Hines, Andy; Gary, Jay; Daheim, Cornelia; van der Laan, Luke (2017). "Building foresight capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model" (PDF). World Futures Review. 9 (3): 123–141. doi:10.1177/1946756717715637. S2CID 115261787.
^ "Zukunftsforschung". www.ewi-psy.fu-berlin.de (in German). 2 December 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2021.
^ "World Futures Day | UNESCO". www.unesco.org. Retrieved 2022-12-12.

[1] James Joseph O'Toole (2017). "Futurology | social science". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 11 May 2020.

[2] "Futurology | Definition of Futurology by Lexico". Lexico Dictionaries | English. Archived from the original on March 25, 2020. Retrieved 11 May 2020.

[3] Voros, Joseph (2017-02-24). "The Futures Cone, use and history". The Voroscope. Retrieved 2020-07-13.

[Wordnet-4] "Futurology". Wordnet Search 3.1. Princeton University. Retrieved 16 March 2013.

[Oxford-5] Futurology-Oxford Dictionary. 2008. Mainly a pseudo-science, given the complexities of social, political, economic, technological, and natural factors.

[Williams-6] William, F. Williams (2013-12-02). Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience: From Alien Abductions to Zone Therapy. Routledge. pp. 122–123. ISBN 9781135955229. Many scientists reject the notion of futurology being a science, while others quibble at the use of the unscholarly word 'futurology'.

[7] Hines, Andy (2004). "The History and Development of the Association of Professional Futurists". The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies.

[8] Hines, Andy; Gary, Jay; Daheim, Cornelia; van der Laan, Luke (2017). "Building foresight capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model" (PDF). World Futures Review. 9 (3): 123–141. doi:10.1177/1946756717715637. S2CID 115261787.

[9] "Zukunftsforschung". www.ewi-psy.fu-berlin.de (in German). 2 December 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2021.

[10] "World Futures Day | UNESCO". www.unesco.org. Retrieved 2022-12-12.

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