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Elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin, which describes the condition of a society which is producing too many potential elite members relative to its ability to absorb them into the power structure.[1][2][3] This, he hypothesizes, is a cause for social instability, as those left out of power feel aggrieved by their relatively low socioeconomic status.[1][2][3]
However, Turchin's model cannot foretell precisely how a crisis will unfold; it can only yield probabilities. Turchin likened this to the accumulation of deadwood in a forest over many years, paving the way for a cataclysmic forest fire later on. It is possible to predict a massive conflagration, Turchin argues, but not what causes it.[4] Nor does it offer definitive solutions, though it can clarify the trade-offs of various options.[5] For Turchin, history suggests that non-violent reversal of elite overproduction is possible, citing the two decades after World War II in the United States, a time of high taxes on the wealthy and strong labor unions.[6]
- ^ a b "Too many Americans who perceive themselves to be elites are chasing too few positions". National Review. 2020-07-14. Retrieved 2020-08-23.
- ^ a b Turchin, Peter (12 November 2016). "Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Society Frays". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on 2019-10-13.
- ^ a b Turchin, Peter (2013). "Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability". Cliodynamics. 4 (2). doi:10.21237/C7clio4221333.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
:4was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rosenberg, Paul (October 1, 2016). "Breaking point: America approaching a period of disintegration, argues anthropologist Peter Turchin". Salon. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
:11was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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