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2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

This article is about the special election. For the regularly-held election, see 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska.
For broader coverage of this topic, see Alaska's at-large congressional district.

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
← 2020 August 16, 2022 November 2022 →
Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout32.2%[1]
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 74,817
39.7% 		58,339
30.9% 		52,536
27.8%
Final round 91,266
48.4% 		86,026
45.6% 		Eliminated
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Don Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.[3]

The election was the first held after Alaska Measure 2 established a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the winners of a top-four primary advanced to an instant-runoff election. However, Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.

The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted.[4][5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31.[6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.[7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13.[8]

The results were praised by many pundits and activists, with the pro-IRV lobbyist group FairVote arguing the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing more moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]

By contrast, the election generated criticism from social choice and election scientists over several pathologies.[11][12] More voters ranked Begich above Peltola.[13][14][15][13][15] Later analysis showed the election was a center squeeze, a scenario in instant runoff and plurality voting where a lack of first-preferences causes the candidate closest to the center of public opinion to be eliminated.[11][14][15] Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking Begich out of contention in the first round (despite being the weakest candidate).[16] The election was also notable as a negative vote weight event, where a candidate is eliminated as a result of having too much support; ballots ranking Palin first and Begich second instead helped Peltola to win.[17][18] However, election scientists were careful to note such pathologies likely would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading several to suggest alternative systems.

  1. ^ "State of Alaska | 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION | Election Summary Report | August 16, 2022 | OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  2. ^ Miller, Andrew Mark (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young dead at 88". Fox News. Archived from the original on March 19, 2022. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Rockey, Tim (September 2022). "Peltola to become first Alaska Native, first female Alaska congresswoman". Alaskasnewssource.com. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  4. ^ Brooks, James (March 19, 2022). "Alaska's first ranked-choice election will be a special vote to replace Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 23, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  5. ^ Iris Samuels. "Peltola again grows her lead, but final outcome in Alaska's U.S. House race is days away". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 28, 2022. Retrieved August 28, 2022.
  6. ^ "Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election to fill Alaska's U.S. House seat". Reuters. September 1, 2022. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  7. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 1, 2022). "What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  8. ^ Media, Alaska Public; Media, Chris Klint, Alaska Public (September 13, 2022). "Mary Peltola makes history as first Alaska Native person sworn into Congress". KTOO. Retrieved May 19, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  9. ^ Otis, Deb (August 31, 2022). "Results and analysis from Alaska's first RCV election". FairVote.
  10. ^ "North to the Future: Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting System is Praised and Criticized Nationally". Alaska Public Media.
  11. ^ a b Maskin, Eric; Foley, Edward B. (November 1, 2022). "Alaska's ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there's an easy fix". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  12. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". arXiv.org. p. 2. Retrieved March 24, 2024. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  13. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :1 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ a b Atkinson, Nathan; Ganz, Scott C. (October 30, 2022). "The flaw in ranked-choice voting: rewarding extremists". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2023. However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred to each of the more extreme candidates by a majority of voters. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
  15. ^ a b c Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". arXiv.org. p. 2. Retrieved March 24, 2024. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  16. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (January 2, 2024). "Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska". Math Horizons. 31 (1): 24–27. doi:10.1080/10724117.2023.2224675. ISSN 1072-4117.
  17. ^ Cite error: The named reference Analysis Alaska was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (January 2, 2024). "Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska". Math Horizons. 31 (1): 24–27. doi:10.1080/10724117.2023.2224675. ISSN 1072-4117.

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