The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient Roman saying expressing the European presumption that black swans did not exist until Dutch mariners saw them in Australia in 1697, and the term was then reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.[1]
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain:
Taleb's "black swan theory" (which differs from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem) refers only to statistically unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[2]: xxi More technically, in the scientific monograph "Silent Risk",[3] Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".[3]
Haworth
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